Methodology
How Akiya Finder gathers listings, checks hazards and estimates costs and returns. All numbers are estimates meant to rank and screen, not to replace due diligence.
- AStrong candidate
Score ≥ 70 and net yield ≥ 8% under the best strategy.
- BViable with work
Score ≥ 55. Workable once the flagged issues are resolved.
- CSpeculative
Low or uncertain returns. Better suited to own use or a lifestyle purchase.
- XAvoid
Blocking legal issue, severe hazard (score < 35) or very low overall score.
Data sources
Listings: SUUMO used-house pages (crawled within robots.txt), Ieichiba owner listings (a private akiya bank), and akiya bank exports sent by partner municipalities. Rents: SUUMO detached-house rentals in the same town. Short-stay rates: lodging prices within 3 km (Rakuten Travel). Hazards, zoning, land prices and population: MLIT Real Estate Information Library. Earthquake probability: J-SHIS (NIED). Geocoding and elevation: GSI. Exchange rates: ECB reference rates. The same house listed on several sites is shown once.
Scoring
Overall score = 50% returns (60% net yield, reaching full marks at 12%; 40% ten-year IRR including resale, full marks at 10%) + 30% hazard score + 20% legal score (−100 for a blocker, −25 per high flag, −8 per medium flag). Category A also needs a ten-year IRR of at least 3%.
Total cost
Purchase price + broker fee + stamp duty + registration and acquisition taxes (assessed value estimated at 70% of price) + scrivener + renovation (¥25k / ¥60k / ¥110k per m² by building age) + seismic retrofit where needed − typical subsidies. Every item carries a low–high range.
Returns
Long-term rent: median rent per m² of comparable rental houses in the same town (+10% for a renovated house, capped near the dearest quarter), or a regional estimate when the town has fewer than five. Minpaku: nights sold come from the official 2023 room occupancy of simple lodgings (簡易宿所) in the prefecture (Japan Tourism Agency), scaled by how much lodging is nearby, then capped at the national 180 nights and at any local ordinance limit (official MLIT list of 62 jurisdictions with ordinances, with verified night limits for Kyoto, Karuizawa and Tokyo's wards). Nightly rate comes from nearby lodging prices. Platform (15%), management (20%), cleaning and utilities are deducted. Exit: land at the town's median land price (or 80% of the purchase price), adjusted for the 250 m population projection and legal flags, plus 40% of the renovation spend, minus 5% selling costs.
Translation and photos
Listing text is translated to English by Claude, keeping legally important Japanese terms. Up to four listing photos are rated for condition from 1 (ruin) to 5 (move-in ready); the rating sets the renovation scope instead of building age. Photos cannot show hidden damage, so an inspection is still required.
Limitations
Listing addresses usually stop at the district (丁目) level, so hazards are assessed at an approximate point. Market rents and nightly rates are coarse regional assumptions. Always verify with local professionals.